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GfK retail expert Olaf Petersen: "The crisis is significantly affecting selective aspects of European retail, making sound concepts and locations essential for survival." Europe's retail and real estate branches face real challenges according to GfK retail and real estate expert Olaf Petersen. In his analysis of the current economic situation at the GfK Retail & Real Estate Conference in Hamburg, Germany, Petersen concluded that the crisis has already impacted retail. However, not all markets and retail concepts have been equally affected, and some could even turn profits.
Despite a still relatively stable consumer climate as measured by consumer mood, the hard facts such as retail turnover figures indicate that Germany's retail sector has suffered a loss in the first financial quarter of 2009. Petersen predicated that the sector would undergo a loss of 2.5 percent for the year. Even so, Germany is faring comparatively well: Petersen indicated that countries undergoing substantial economic growth prior to the crisis will have to reckon with two-digit retail losses for 2009. "The crisis has hit Ireland especially hard, where a loss of around 10 percent is anticipated. The Baltic States have also been strongly affected, with losses between 9 and 14 percent," elaborated Petersen. Central and southern European countries have also not escaped the crisis, which brought an abrupt end to the economic growth previously enjoyed by these regions. One country going against the trend is Poland, where Petersen expects a small increase of 0.3 percent in retail turnover for 2009. Petersen went on to describe how unfavorable developments amongst European currencies against the euro have resulted in additional pressure in the international retail real estate sector, burdening it with numerous elements of uncertainty. For example, Poland's currency has undergone a devaluation of more than 22 percent since April 2008. The currencies of Great Britain, Norway, Sweden, Russia and southeastern European countries have also fared poorly against the euro, with losses over the previous year between nine and 14 percent. "Amidst this European trend, Germany – with its fairly conservative consumers and rate of economic development – offers conditions much more conducive to reliable retail planning," said Petersen in his assessment of how Germany's situation compares to that of Europe. If the German market was considered somewhat sluggish in boom times, it now offers retailers and real estate project developers a certain continuity as well as conditions favorable to planning. There is fierce competition and pressure to succeed among the various retail forms, Petersen noted. The success enjoyed by discounters and retail warehouses is threatening traditional specialty stores – a trend that will grow more pronounced as the economic crisis continues and encourages German consumers to hunt for bargains. Stationary retail remains in competition with online vendors, the latter of which are benefiting from a growing target group comprised of older consumers: Between 2003 and 2008, the number of online purchases increased by 148 percent among 60-69 year-olds. By comparison, the number of all online purchases grew by "only" 53 percent. Those involved in retail and real estate must reckon with this phenomenon if they wish to remain competitive, indicated Petersen. As a positive example of an effective response to this trend, Petersen named city center-oriented concepts such as well-integrated shopping centers. According to Petersen, these retail venues have a good chance of continued success despite the crisis, an evaluation supported by Germany's growing amount of leased retail space and related turnover. Even so, the shopping center area per person in Germany still lies in the bottom half from a Europe-wide perspective – the popularity of shopping centers in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe is, according to Petersen, due to different factors. Petersen emphasized that potential- and demand-oriented planning with regard to strategic decisions in retail and real estate development is particularly indispensable in these times. "Without a detailed examination of realistic turnover potential that takes into account the economic, socio-demographic and urban development aspects of a given location, it's simply not possible to be assured of sustainable growth," warned Petersen, indicating that this observation applied equally to the pre-crisis period. Due to the fact that this important factor was often neglected in past, Petersen regards certain aspects of the current crisis in this branch as a "self-made problem". Given this view, Petersen only sees favorable chances for retail concepts and real estate projects that were planned with sustainability in mind. "Sustainably planned and well thought-out retail offers and retail real estate objects will survive the crisis and may even be able to profit from others' mistakes. However, the era of retail growth fuelled by credit-based purchases is over for the present." Additional information Olaf Petersen About the GfK Retail & Real Estate Conference Print-quality illustrations can be found here (approx. 2 MB). Download press release (approx. 59 KB) 
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At the 2009 GfK Retail & Real Estate Conference, Olaf Petersen, the head of GfK GeoMarketing's Real Estate Consulting Division, presented GfK study results demonstrating that the economic crisis has already affected European retail. The situation is also not expected to improve in the near future, according to Petersen.
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