GfK GeoMarketing has carried out an analysis of Europe's retail scene on behalf of the European Shopping Centre Trust (ESCT). The study was presented at the ICSC European Conference in Stockholm from 17-18 April 2013.

GfK GeoMarketing has released a study on European retail in 2013. The data was compiled and evaluated on behalf of the European Shopping Center Trust (ESCT). Published as an English-language compendium, the study provides a Europe-wide overview of retail-relevant data. The study evaluates the following GfK data for all European countries, including Russia and Turkey: GfK Purchasing Power, retail turnover, retail expenditures as a share of the population's total expenditures, 2013 turnover prognosis, inflation rates as well as sales area provision and productivity.

Positive growth is particularly discernible in Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic States. Thanks to extremely dynamic developments in Russia, this country's retail scene is poised for the first time to achieve the highest retail turnover in Europe. By contrast, a sustained positive turnaround for the southern European countries is not yet in sight.

"The retail scene in Europe last year was once again enormously eventful," say Sebastian Müller and Manuel Jahn, GfK retail experts and authors of the study. "The differences among the individual European countries and regions were more pronounced last year than in previous years. Particularly in those countries that continue to be affected by stringent savings measures, consumers' low expectations for the economic development of their country and salary increases occasioned a downturn in consumption, which in turn resulted in declining retail turnover. The gap between prospering and struggling European nations continues to grow ever wider."

Below are some of the key findings of the study:

• With regard to purchasing power, the disposable income of Europe's households in 2011 has again climbed despite the current debt crisis and uncertainty regarding the economic development of the EU-27 countries. In 2012, approximately €9.2 trillion was available to European consumers in the countries under review for consumption-related expenditures. Purchasing power trends among the European countries under review vary widely depending upon the degree of economic development. The greatest growth rates occurred in Russia, Norway, Great Britain, Scandinavia and the Baltic states. While Russia and the Baltic have achieved a genuine economic recovery, the situation is more complicated in the case of Great Britain: the positive numbers are partly a result of exchange rate effects and also do not reflect the disparity between London and the rest of the country.
• Retailers in the 32 evaluated countries generated an approximate 2012 retail turnover of €3.09 trillion, an increase of approximately +3.7 percent over the 2011 value. This continues the positive trend in recent years, although this growth has slackened due to poor retail performance in some crisis-ridden countries (including, among others, Greece (-11.8 percent), Portugal (-5.6 percent), Spain (-4.4 percent), Slovenia (-2.4 percent) and Italy (-1.8 percent)).
  Russia leads the EU-27 pack in absolute turnover volume due to robust turnover growth as well as the sheer size of its economy. Despite substantial growth in online turnover, the top 2 countries in the EU – France and Germany – were still able to generate moderate retail turnover growth last year (France: +1.7%, Germany: +1.0%).
• GfK GeoMarketing forecasts a nominal growth of approximately +1.9 percent in retail turnover (as measured in €) in 2013 among the 32 countries under review. This assumes that positive turnover growth in northeastern Europe will be counterbalanced by negative growth in many southern European nations.
  Given current economic conditions, stationary retail will face increasing pressure from the rapidly growing online retail sector. Stationary retail must therefore develop multi-channel strategies in order to profit from this growth. Trailblazers in this regard are the UK, Germany, France and Scandinavia.
• Retail spending as a proportion of private consumption expenditures decreased slightly in 2012 among the EU-27 (31.2 percent compared to approximately 31.3 percent in the previous year). This figure is somewhat higher (33.6 percent) when all European countries under review are taken into account. Reasons for this ongoing decline include continuing increases in energy and living costs as well as greater spending on recreational activities, traveling and online retail. Economic uncertainties in some countries are also dampening consumers' willingness to spend.
• Almost all European countries had quite modest inflation rates in 2012, ranging from 1.0 percent to 4.3 percent. Much higher values are discernible in Turkey (8.0 percent), Russia (6.0 percent) and Hungary (5.6 percent). The EU-27 countries experienced a nominal retail turnover growth of approximately 1.4 percent in 2012. Adjusting these figures by the average inflation of 2.7 percent, it's clear that actual retail turnover has declined somewhat, a trend that is likely to continue in 2013.
• Per-capita sales area in the 32 European countries under review increased by a total of approximately 2.8 percent in 2012 compared to 2011. As in the previous year, the sales area growth rate in 2012 falls below the turnover growth. Outside of the EU-27, Turkey and Russia have the highest growth rates (7 percent and 8 percent, respectively), although this is to some degree a matter of these countries catching back up. However, these two countries also currently have the lowest sales area coverage. While the amount of actively operated sales area was significantly down in Greece and Portugal, the Scandinavian and Baltic countries have an above-average amount of sales area growth.

GfK GeoMarketing's calculations of turnover and purchasing power were carried out in euros based on the average 2012 exchange rate for the related currency (as reported by the ECB). The information and data are accurate as of the end of February 2013. The study was commissioned by the European Shopping Centre Trust and is available upon request from GfK GeoMarketing as a 12-page, English-language compendium.

Additional information on the study can be obtained from Cornelia Lichtner, public relations: T +49 7251 9295 270 or cornelia.lichtner@gfk.com.

GfK GeoMarketing's headquarters are located in Bruchsal, Germany. The company is a subsidiary of GfK. GfK is one of the world’s largest research companies, with more than 12,000 experts working to discover new insights into the way people live, think and shop, in over 100 markets, every day. GfK is constantly innovating and using the latest technologies and the smartest methodologies to give its clients the clearest understanding of the most important people in the world: their customers. In 2012, GfK’s sales amounted to €1.51 billion.

Additional information can be found at www.gfk-geomarketing.com.

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