GfK GeoMarketing predicts low total growth in Germany's regional retail turnover for 2013. Even so, retail in attractive locations can profit from the currently stable consumer mood.

The study "GfK Retail Turnover 2013" is a prognosis of point-of-sale turn-over. The study reveals the regional stationary retail turnover for all of Germany's districts and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants. According to the new study, Germany's 2013 stationary retail turnover will amount to approximately €412.1 bil. This corresponds to a nominal growth of 0.5 percent compared to the previous year.

Inflation-driven price increases will result in a low actual growth rate, as was the case last year. The share of income available to Germans for retail-related expenditures has been declining for years. Among other reasons, rising energy costs have forced many consumers to reduce their retail spending.

"The currently positive consumer mood in Germany is exerting a stabilizing effect on German retail, which is doing better compared to many other European countries," explains GfK retail expert Oliver Giehsel. "Online turn-over growth will grow even faster this year than in previous years, and at the expense of stationary retail turnover. It's therefore essential that sta-tionary retail make itself more attractive to consumers and find new syner-gies with online retail. It's crucial that stores position themselves at desira-ble locations that can draw sufficient numbers of customers. If that is the case and if store locations are well chosen, stationary retail can generate turnover growth in 2013 even amidst such challenging circumstances."

The districts with the most inhabitants generate the highest turnover. Met-ropolitan areas such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich top the turnover rankings:

Germany's top 15 districts together generate 21.4 percent, or around one-fifth, of the country's total retail turnover. These are areas marked by high demand, but also by a high level of competition. The multi-billion-dollar turnover potential in Germany's major metropolises make these cities es-sential sites for chain stores wishing to succeed and establish themselves in the market.

It's also important to consider mid-sized and small cities when expanding or optimizing branch networks. These cities often draw purchasing power from well beyond their borders, leading to turnover levels significantly higher than the retail purchasing power of the local inhabitants. Mid-sized cities, in particular, can have much larger catchment areas and substantially more potential customers than their official populations alone would suggest. Mid-sized cities that serve as major supply sites for the surrounding area - such as the urban districts of Straubing, Passau and Weiden, which top the rankings according to turnover per inhabitant - enjoy per capita turnover volumes twice that of the national average.

NOTE: The per inhabitant values comprise a purely mathematical bench-mark, because the retail at these respective locations is by no means driv-en only by local inhabitants. Insight into the retail drawing power of the regions in question can however be gained by correlating retail turnover with population size.

GfK Retail Turnover reveals the regional distribution of retail-related turn-over. In contrast to GfK Retail Purchasing Power, which is calculated at consumers’ places of residence, GfK Retail Turnover is calculated at the locations at which sales are made. GfK Retail Turnover is defined as the turnover of the retail trade, excluding motor vehicle and fuel sales as well as mail-order retail, but including retail-related turnover from bakeries, con-fectionaries and butchers.

GfK GeoMarketing annually calculates GfK Retail Turnover for every re-gional level as a total sum, per inhabitants in euros and as an index (Ger-man average = 100). These calculations have been carried out for all of Germany's urban and rural districts as well as municipalities and postcodes with more than 10,000 inhabitants.

The study "GfK Retail Turnover" is also available for many other European countries.

Additional information on the GfK Retail Turnover study can be found at www.gfk-geomarketing.com/retail-turnover.

GfK GeoMarketing's headquarters are located in Bruchsal, Germany. The company is a subsidiary of GfK. GfK is one of the world’s largest research companies, with more than 12,000 experts working to discover new insights into the way people live, think and shop, in over 100 markets, every day. GfK is constantly innovating and using the latest technologies and the smartest methodologies to give its clients the clearest understanding of the most important people in the world: their customers. In 2012, GfK’s sales amounted to €1.51 billion.

Additional information can be found at www.gfk-geomarketing.com.

Download illustrations